lundi 29 avril 2013

le Grand Déclin

an update on Canadian tar sands production, monthly from 1985 
through Jan 2013 :

Anticipated regional change in supply in 2013. (OPEC April MOMR.) (offre) :

entre les "sables bitimineux canadiens" et la production us, l'indépendance énergétique nord américaine est assurée jusqu'en 2014.

quid de l'Europe ? comment l'Europe va pouvoir ne serait-ce que payer la facture énergétique ?
conserver ses entreprises ? et accessoirement comment la France pourra payer les retraites ?

le déclin de la production d'énergies fossiles en 2017 ? ou plus tard ? :

2017 we will be in decline. 2025 game over.

ou :

2015-2020: we'll have an idea of how fast and far we are declining
2020-2050: decline sets in
2050-2100: game over on global industrial civilization

selon nos "intimes convictions" personnelles nous posons le "déclin" en 2017 ou en 2020. la marge d'erreur est large. même, certains posent le pic dès 2000 :

ou :

2000-2010 : G8 governments have a pretty good idea of the decline curve, when, how much, etc. They also have a pretty good idea of how unequal access to oil (via money, rationing, national-first, etc.) will distort the amount available to them ('lands modelling). Production is essentially plateaued.
2010-2020 : It become obvious to others roughly how things are going to go, first the interested, then the general populous. At some point long term financial gamblers start making big, long term shifts as a result (companies fail, pensions fail). Production tends to trend downwards, but with 'lies, damn lies and statistics' hiding the extent and form of the fall. National security apparatus is enhanced as those in power seek to maintain it.
2020-2030 : Peak oil has gone from 'a future problem' to 'well of course it's happening' without much inbetween, and people recognise how unequal distribution effect collapses economies hard'n'fast. People agitate for other access control/sharing mechanisms, not just cost, whilst exporters cut production via slowed new projects, accidents, etc. and make powerful friends (who get first dibs in exchange for military muscle). Eventually you get the first invasion for oil, transnational revolutions and a general retreat from a globalised world. Decline goes from 'dealable' (<2 b="" to="">'general civilisation killing' (>4%) although the unequal distribution aspect means it's been killing civilisations since 2005.
2030-XXXX : Post Peak, Post Oil, Post Globalisation - we are in an age when local is the thing, with societies trying to form sustainable models in what's left. The big die off occurs.

personnellement je suis d'accord avec la dernière analyse. 
le déclin se fera durement, encore plus durement, sentir dès 2015. si ce n'est pas un déclin géologique sec, ce sera un déclin par les manipulations du "marché".

fin de la civilisation ou pas ? (toujours une fourchette entre 2020 et 2050).

déclin de la démocratie, c'est déjà fait. 
la civilisation peut perdurer, avec un "partage" juste inexistant.

ce n'est pas déjà le cas ? si. 

alors, où est le problème ? il n'y a pas de problème. il a été largement anticipé.